Mark Ingram was 3-Stars in High School
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Director of Scouting
Posted Apr 29, 2011
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Scouting football players on any level is an inexact science at best, but is there a correlation between star rankings and the NFL Draft?
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Who's going to make it to the NFL?
Scout.com scours the nation for the best college prospects in the country. Most
of the time, not all, but most of the time a player who is expected to do well
in the college ranks are also expected to move on to the NFL.
With the first round of the NFL Draft under our belts, and using the NFL Draft
as a validation of the nation's most gifted players, let's take a look at how
the first round broke down on Thursday.
In a given year, 2,500 players will sign football scholarships to Division 1
programs. The star allocations for those players:
| Star |
Players |
| 5 |
50 |
| 4 |
250 |
| 3 |
1000 |
| 2 |
1200 |
The breakdown for the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft.
| Star |
1st Round Picks |
| 5 |
5 |
| 4 |
13 |
| 3 |
9 |
| 2 |
5 |
Odds of becoming a 1st round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft
| Star |
Odds of 1st Rnd |
| 5 |
10-1 |
| 4 |
20-1 |
| 3 |
111-1 |
| 2 |
240-1 |
Two conclusions are obvious
when seeing where the players were ranked before they arrived at their
respective colleges.
First, it's an inexact science. Nearly as many 2-Star and 3-Star players went in
the first round as 4-Star and 5-Star players.
Second, the probability of becoming a first round pick is directly proportional
to the ranking a player had in high school. Afterall, there are nearly 25 times more 2-Star players than 5-Star players.
Another lesson that all prospective student athletes should take into account.
Even the 5-Star players only have a 10-1 chance of being a first round pick, so
get your college degree.
*Scout's Allen Trieu compiled First Round Data:
Final 1st Round count:
5-Stars (5)
4-Stars (13)
3-Stars (9)
2-Stars (5)
NR (0)
*Note: Profiles link to high school profiles
 - #NR DE |
Pewaukee, WI (Pewaukee High School) |
| - #NR OL |
Buena Vista, CO (Buena Vista HS) |
| - #NR OT |
Fork Union, VA (Fork Union Military Academy) |
| - #NR OT |
Butte, MT (Butte JC) |
| - #NR DE |
Linden, NJ (Linden HS) |
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