Who are the best one loss teams and what one team has the best chance to play an unbeaten Michigan or Ohio State team for the title?
Bobby (Knoxville, Tennessee)
After Thursday you can add another very good one loss team in either West Virginia or Louisville to this list. Later on in the year there will be a loss to Michigan or Ohio State. Certainly the losers of the teams mentioned above would fit into this answer but they are all unbeaten for the moment.
Here’s how I see the top ten one loss teams and what they have ahead.
1) Texas
Texas showed me a lot on Saturday, especially quarterback Colt McCoy. He rallied the Longhorns to a win who were down by 21 at one time. To be honest, I have waited for McCoy to make the freshman mistakes but he has not. McCoy has poise, plays with savvy and he has been well coached. No he isn’t Vince Young but this kid can play and leads a talented Texas team. Their defense, especially their front seven is outstanding. Of course their only loss is to the No. 1 rated Buckeyes. The Longhorns still have some land mines in front of them with Oklahoma State and Texas A&M and then they have the Big 12 Championship Game.
2) Florida
The Gators made it through that brutal stretch 3-1 and are in the driver’s seat to make it to Atlanta to play for the SEC title. How good really are these Gators? It’s perplexing to me that they have yet to play a complete game under Urban Meyer and they have a hard time of putting teams away. They had a chance to at Auburn in the first half and didn’t do it. The Tigers came out in the second half and beat them. Their front seven, especially their defensive line, is one of the nations very best. Offensively they are inconsistent but they are blessed to have great athletes with speed on the edge. Florida does travel to Tallahassee to face FSU the week before the SEC championship game. It’s always tough to win there for the Gators.
3) Auburn
How does Auburn get manhandled at home one week against Arkansas and then beat Florida at home the following week? They weren’t ready for a good Razorback team and lost and they dominated a good Florida team in the second half and won. Some what disturbing if you are an Auburn fan is that in their two wins against LSU and Florida they only scored one offensive touchdown. That’s amazing but it also goes to show you how much special teams and defense comes in to play especially in critical big games. At times Auburn has been dominating this season and at other times they have been just pretty good, like this past weekend in their win in Oxford. The Tigers need some help to win the West. If that happens they will face a very angry Gator team for the SEC title. The winner may get a shot at the National Championship. Auburn still has an outside chance to make it even if they don’t win the west but they will be tested against Georgia and Alabama in November.
4) Tennessee
The Vols are one point away from being unbeaten. They lost at home to Florida in week three 21-20. New Offensive Coordinator David Cutcliffe has made an extraordinary impact on Tennessee, their offense and on quarterback Erik Ainge. It’s been an amazing transformation for a player (Ainge) and unit (the Vol offense) from last season to this season. Tennessee will really be tested this week at home versus a very good LSU team and the following week on the road to face a one loss Arkansas team.
5) Cal
Cal had been red hot after their season opening loss to Tennessee in Knoxville. The offense is very good and they have playmakers everywhere like running back Marshawn Lynch and wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Lavelle Hawkins. Of course Nate Longshore is really coming along at quarterback for Jeff Tedford. His quick development has been the catalyst for the offensive explosion for the Bears. Cal leads the Pac 10 or is near the top of every offensive category and this is an offense averaging almost 38 points per game. The true test will be on the road at USC in a few weeks. But they have a good UCLA team this weekend.
6) USC
Well, it finally happened and USC lost a Pac 10 game. But as of late the Trojans were coming dangerously close to losing only to turn it on when they needed to make a play or two. Things will tough in November, as they face Cal, Oregon and Notre Dame. Are they the best one loss team? At times yes but USC has had trouble playing four quarters of football. When they do they are virtually unstoppable. This has been an inconsistent football team. Let’s face it, because they have been so good for a while now they are still wearing the bull’s eye on their chest and teams are giving them their best shots.
7) Notre Dame
I still am not sold on this Notre Dame team. They were too hyped coming into this season and the expectations were overblown. They are a good, solid team that has struggled to beat some teams that they should have handled easily. What happened when they faced the No. 2 team in the country (Michigan)? They got blown out at home. To their credit Brady Quinn and Notre Dame found ways to win and they are sitting on one loss. Their signature win could come at the end of the year when the travel to Southern Cal. But that’s a big if.
8) Arkansas
I am having a hard time gauging this Razorback team. They are winning with a true freshman at quarterback in Mitch Mustain. He does have a great running game to rely on with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. Marcus Monk is one of the league’s top wideouts. The Razorback defense is good. This is a team that went on the road and pushed a good Auburn team around. It’s also a team that should have lost at home to Alabama earlier in the season. Arkansas will get tested this week on the road at South Carolina. They also have LSU and Tennessee in November. I will be a big believer if they get through that remaining schedule unscathed, especially with a true frosh at quarterback.
9) Wisconsin
The Badgers are the most underrated and least talked about of all the one loss teams. I don’t think people realize that they did have an early lead on Michigan and they are the one team that played them the hardest and closest. Wisconsin has an outstanding young running back in P.J. Hill and a very good defense. He got injured (neck) against Illinois but they came from behind to beat the Fighting Illini. Wisconsin doesn’t face Ohio State this season and they have a chance to finish the season with only that one loss. They get Penn State at home this week and go on the road to Iowa the following week.
10) Boston College
How good is Boston College? Their two signature wins this season are at home against Clemson (in overtime) and on the road at Florida State. They are an underrated football team that is well coached. Matt Ryan is one of the league’s top quarterbacks and the Eagles are pretty solid on defense. They close with Wake Forest and Miami on the road and get Maryland and Duke at home.
Now how will things sort themselves out? It’s virtually impossible to tell and there are several scenarios to look at.
First, it is highly likely that either Ohio State or Michigan finish the regular season unbeaten. The winner of their season ending match up finishes No. 1 in the BCS. That’s the easy part. So there, we have one of the two teams that will play for it all.
Who will be there other? Can the winner of the West Virginia/Louisville game emerge in the No. 2 spot? I don’t think so because of their weak non-conference play and because of the bottom half of the Big East. No doubt the conference is improved but it’s still not that strong top to bottom. It is no slam dunk that the winner of this game finishes without a loss. Remember that both of these teams have unbeaten Rutgers on their schedules as well as Pittsburgh so their strength of schedule will look better to the computers as we move closer to the end of the regular season. West Virginia also has Cincinnati and South Florida while Louisville also finishes with the Bulls and UConn.
So, if the WV/Louisville winner is not sitting at No. 2 at the end of the season who could it be? I really think Florida or Texas can get up there. First, they both have to win out and then win their championship games and hope that’s enough. Both the Longhorns and Gators have a great case to make for themselves if that happens. But in regards to Florida, what happens if Auburn finishes ahead of them in the BCS but the Gators face Arkansas in the SEC Championship Game? There may be no way that they can leap frog the Tigers unless voters see to it that that happens. It could come down to “style” points. These teams in particular have to look good winning in the month of November. Currently, Florida is ahead of Auburn in the BCS.
The other scenario here is what happens to the Michigan/Ohio State loser? How far do they fall? What happens if it’s a close game and a game in which both teams play very well? Could it be they stay one-two and replay each other once again in the National Championship Game?
There is still a month of football to be played and conference championship games in the first weekend in December. Hopefully this BCS mess can sort itself out on the field and the true No. 1 plays No. 2 for the National Championship. But if there is a one loss team playing the Ohio State/Michigan winner, there will certainly be lots of upset teams that feel they deserve that spot. Maybe the NCAA will wake up and realize that a playoff is the only solution. Let a true champion be settled on the field just like they do in every other sport.
Darren McFadden
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How can you say Arkansas is the 5th or 6th best team in the SEC? You, like many other media specialists are not giving them their due respect? So I ask you what do they need to do to earn it? They have gone on the road and whipped a top five contender and they have beaten Alabama and Ole Miss. Tell me four or five teams better than them?
Chris (Kansas)
Arkansas got blown away in their opener against USC and took Auburn by surprise a few weeks ago so they have really come out of no where to be ranked where they are in the top 25. They are winning behind their running game and good defense. Freshman quarterback Mitch Mustain is 7-0 as a starter and that includes guiding the Razorbacks to their biggest win of the season on the road at Auburn earlier this month. He is playing pretty well. Although his numbers aren’t big he is winning and that’s all that matters.
I am not a full believer in Arkansas just yet. Don’t get me wrong, I think Arkansas is a good team. Do I think they are a top ten team yet? No, I am not convinced. The Razorbacks face South Carolina on the road this week and then close with home games against Tennessee and LSU. Sandwiched in between the Volunteers and Tigers is a road game in Starkville. Beat the Gamecocks, Vols and Tigers and I will certainly become a believer.
Does Kodi Burns end up at Auburn or Arkansas?
William (Tulsa, Oklahoma)
I spoke with Kodi this week and I think the Razorbacks are the team to beat. Going into the interview I was wondering how much Mitch Mustain would factor in his decision. Mustain was the nation’s top quarterback ranked by Scout.com last year. He is the current starter at Arkansas and playing pretty well. In fact, he may not have huge numbers but he’s 7-0 as the Razorback starter so far this season. The Arkansas Offensive Coordinator is Gus Malzahn, the former head coach at Springdale (Ark.) High School. His star signal caller last season was none other than Mustain.
Burns, from Fort Smith (Ark.) Northside High School, is the nation’s No. 5 ranked quarterback. He is a different player than Mustain. Mustain does have some mobility to his game but nothing like the athleticism Burns brings to the table. Burns feels he can either come in and compete with Mustain for the job next season or Arkansas can red-shirt him and that would separate these two quarterbacks by two seasons. Either way, he is excited about the future of the program at Arkansas, loves their new offensive system and likes Malzahn and company.
Now Auburn is a real player for him and if they weren’t Burns would have made his decision some time ago. He loves that Auburn has a great running game and that this is a program that has competed for championships recently. Burns has been trying to decide between these two SEC West rivals for some time. Some days he wakes up leaning to Arkansas and other days it’s Auburn. He will visit Auburn officially when they host Georgia (11-11) and should decide in December.
It’s a close call but I think he signs with the Razorbacks based on playing and competing with Mustain, he likes this system run by Malzahn and the direction of the program. And after all, Arkansas is the home team and there is some pressure for him to stay home.
Why hasn’t scout.com updated team rankings since last year?
Adam (Mobile, Alabama)
We were set to unveil the team rankings earlier this month. I even previewed them in the Football Blitz a few weeks ago. But after further review we decided to split up the offensive line and linebacker positions and add fullback. Therefore, we needed to overhaul the team rankings to reflect these additions to the player database. Stay tuned, we should have the new release of the team rankings in the next two-three weeks.
Who is your all-time favorite college football player?
Tom (McKinney, Texas)
I am not sure if I have an all-time favorite college player. Doing what I do I get excited and anxious to see how certain prospects pan out and I have always felt that way. As far as pro ball is concerned I think I have two favorites, Earl Campbell and Lawrence Taylor, although I was never a fan of Houston and New York. I just loved the way those two played the game. Personally, I think Taylor is the greatest player of all-time. He changed the way the game was played and I have never seen someone dominate a game from the defensive side of the ball as he did in his day. I know Jim Brown is up there too. I am from Cleveland, Ohio and my father would tell me old Brown stories all the time when I was a young kid. Then you watch NFL Films and you see what an incredible player and athlete he really was. He truly was a player ahead of his time. I think Herschel Walker was the greatest college player of all-time. That’s a topic for another day though.
I was wondering how likely it would be for Arrelious Benn to sign with Illinois? With a great freshman quarterback like the Juice (Isiah Williams) Illinois could be great with him.
Pat (Texas)
The shocker of this recruiting campaign just may be Arrelious Benn to Illinois. You mark my words, the Illini have become a major factor in the Benn sweepstakes. The million dollar question with the nation’s top receiver is what the heck happened to Notre Dame? The Fighting Irish were sitting in the driver’s seat six months or so ago. They were riding high off the Jimmy Clausen commitment and Benn was soon to follow. Here we are approaching late fall and Notre Dame has let other teams back in the picture. Benn was Notre Dame’s too lose and all of a sudden teams like Illinois, Florida State, and Maryland are right there in the thick of things.
Let’s reset the table and give a quick review of the Benn recruitment. He has made official visits to Notre Dame (9-9), Illinois (9-23), Florida State (10-21), and Maryland (10-28). After these four visits it appears you could make a case for each of the four teams. Benn publicly says everyone is in the mix and he should make his decision sometime before Thanksgiving.
Now it would appear that the Irish have lost some flavor with Benn. If it were not the case he would have likely committed to Notre Dame already. Having said that, don’t under estimate the power of South Bend, Charlie Weis, the opportunity to play with a potential superstar quarterback in Weis’s system, the tradition of Notre Dame football, etc. Often, when you are trying to dissect a prospect’s recruitment, we all get too deep into reading everything. Sometimes all you need to do is look at the original front runner and that’s where they end up. Will this be the case with Benn and will he opt to pick Notre Dame?
Then there is Maryland. Obviously players like Benn and defensive tackle Marvin Austin have to take a strong look at the Terrapins because they are the home team. But they are obviously a player for Benn and there is an enormous amount of pressure on both of the D.C. standouts to stay home and play for Maryland. In addition, these are the type of recruits that Terrapin Head Coach Ralph Friedgen and his staff have to sign. Lastly, Vernon Davis was from D.C. and he starred at Maryland and was recently a first round draft pick by the San Francisco 49ers. Davis has got to be a great recruiting tool for Maryland and you know he will have some sort of impact on Benn. They are also both from Dunbar High School. On a side note, I would have to imagine that receivers would want to play for Friedgen. For crying out loud this guy has one of the best offensive minds in college football.
Anytime Florida State is recruiting anyone you better take notice. Well, the ‘Noles were always in the mix for Benn and he took a visit to Tallahassee for their home game against Boston College. Benn was blown away by several things including their depth situation at the receiver position, the social aspect of the school and it’s surrounding areas and the weather. FSU has made up some big ground with him and they will be a factor. Also, their top prospect from last season Myron Rolle is working Benn hard for the Seminoles. The one thing to pay real close attention to with Benn and Florida State is here you have one of the nations most sought after prospects and things are eerily quiet in Tallahassee in respect to Benn. When that happens recruits pick Florida State. Just look at prospects like Antone Smith.
Then there is Illinois. When it comes to recruiting, fans and schools across the country better get used to seeing that school – Illinois. It may take Ron Zook and his staff some time but they are going to recruit well for the Fighting Illini. They did it at Florida and they will do it at Illinois. Last season they pulled Isiah “Juice” Williams. Williams was the nation’s No. 5 rated quarterback. He is the starter in Champaign now and the future of Zook’s program. Zook’s legacy, at least what happens over the course of the next few seasons, will depend on how the Juice plays. Recruits are excited about the possibilities and Williams will help, especially with guys like Benn.
In addition, Benn’s best friend is Vontae Davis. Davis is Vernon Davis’s little brother and he’s from Dunbar High School, the home of Benn. Vontae Davis is one of the top freshmen in the country playing cornerback. He starts in the Illinois secondary and he has a great future ahead of him.
Davis should have a major impact on Benn and what he ultimately decides to do. So what impact will his older brother play in Benn’s decision? Will Vernon want to help out his younger brother and his team (Illinois), will he be loyal to his alma mater (Maryland), or will he just give Benn good advice about the recruiting process?
There is something else to consider here. A big factor in Benn’s decision will be how comfortable he is with the school of his choice. Obviously Maryland will be comfortable to him because it is home. At Illinois, there are currently 10 players on the Illini roster from the D.C./Maryland area. Two years ago, during first Zook’ recruiting campaign in Champaign, he beat out Florida for wide receiver Derrick McPhearson. McPhearson, from Hyattsville (Md.), was originally headed to Gainesville to play for Zook. Then he followed Zook to Illinois. Not only did he have to beat out Florida but they also had to beat out Maryland. Twice. McPhearson had committed to the Terrapins very early in the process.
But Zook wasn’t the “go to” guy for the great prospects in D.C. That distinction goes to Mike Locksley, now the Offensive Coordinator for Illinois. He was the Recruiting Coordinator/ Running Backs coach at Florida under Zook and he coached with Friedgen at Maryland. In fact, he helped Maryland recruit Vernon Davis when Davis came out of high school. Hands down, Locksley is one of the top recruiters in the country and one of his main targets this season is Benn. And you also have to factor in Ron Zook. He is without question one of the nation’s very best recruiters as well and the prospects just love him.
So what does all of this mean? Am I reading too much into the Benn recruitment? Should I just go back and say Notre Dame was the early leader and they were the big leader? Should I ignore the signs that Benn will commit to Illinois? And then there are teams like Maryland and Florida State. The Terrapins are the home team and you can never discount the home team when it comes to recruiting. And then there is FSU, who you can never count out period.
Something tells me we are all going to be a little surprised with Benn’s decision and don’t be surprised if he pulls the shocker of the year and decides on Illinois.
Ray Rice
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I saw your Heisman picks and noticed you left off Ray Rice from Rutgers. How can you overlook that guy?
Jim (Brick, N.J.)
Rice is an interesting story. He originally committed to Syracuse along with his teammate Courtney Green. Rice was going to play cornerback for the Orangemen. Rutgers came in and told Rice he could play running back for the Scarlet Knights. Running back is the position that Rice wanted to play all along. So Rice and then Green both committed to Rutgers and they have made a huge impact for the Scarlet Knights. He rushed for 1,120 yards as a freshman. So far this season Rice has rushed for 1,203 yards, 13 touchdowns and has averaged 5.4 yards per carry.
Rice is part of an outstanding sophomore class at the running back position with players like Steve Slaton (West Virginia), James Davis (Clemson), Tyrell Sutton (Northwestern), Javon Ringer (Michigan State), Darren McFadden (Arkansas), Antone Smith (FSU), Jamaal Charles (Texas), Jonathan Stewart (Oregon) and others.
For now, players like Ray Rice from Rutgers and James Davis from Clemson are going to have to wait, at least until next season for the Heisman talk. That’s shouldn’t diminish the fact that Rice, Davis and the others are outstanding players. Slaton is the best of this lot right now and that’s why he is being considered for the Heisman Trophy. It also helps that he plays for one of the nation’s top teams. Slaton has also had monster games on national T.V. (Sugar Bowl, against Maryland this season) to showcase his talents and he will once again on Thursday when West Virginia travels to Louisville.
Here is how I see the race for the Heisman Trophy. Just give it to Troy Smith already.
1)Troy Smith (QB) Ohio State
Smith had another good game. This time he helped put up 44 on the Golden Gophers. Smith was 14-21 for 183 yards with one touchdown pass. For the season he has completed 68% of his passes for 1,898 yards, 22 touchdown passes and only two interceptions.
2) Steve Slaton (RB) West Virginia
West Virginia was idle this past weekend. For the season he has rushed for 1,117 yards and nine touchdowns and has averaged 7.4 yards per carry.
3) Brady Quinn (QB) Notre Dame
Quinn had a big game against Navy, going 18-25 for 295 yards and three touchdowns. For the season he has completed 63.7% of his passes for 2,233 yards, 21 touchdowns and only four interceptions.
The Football Blitz Power Ratings
Top 20
1) Ohio State (9-0)
The beat goes on in Columbus as the Buckeyes manhandle the Golden Gophers 44-0. What happened to their defense? Experts were saying they too many starters and their defense would fail them. Could it be that there “D” is actually better this season? Right now the Buckeyes are scary good on both sides of the ball. Next up, Illinois.
2) Michigan (9-0)
Michigan wins again but they have exactly play particularly well over the past few weeks. But a win is a win as they tune things up for the big showdown with Ohio State in a few weeks. Michigan faces Ball State on Saturday.
3) West Virginia (7-0)
It’s finally here – the big Big East battle between the Mountaineers and Cardinals. Too bad the winner will likely get shut out of the national championship game.
4) Texas (8-1)
Down by three touchdowns Texas rallies against the pass happy Red Raiders. Longhorn quarterback Colt McCoy sure doesn’t play like a freshman and the Texas signal caller is someone that should help keep these Longhorns on top for the next three seasons. Texas hosts a good Ok-State team this weekend.
5) Louisville (7-0)
The Cardinals get the home field advantage for Thursday night’s thriller and much anticipated match up with undefeated West Virginia. Papa John’s Stadium will be rocking and Louisville will need all the help they can get trying to slow down Pat White and Steve Slaton.
6) Auburn (8-1)
Auburn needed to score late to beat Ole Miss on the road. The Tigers escaped with a win. Auburn faces Arkansas State this weekend.
7) Florida (7-1)
The Gators jumped out early on the Dawgs, just like last season’s contest, and held on to beat Georgia. Florida faces an underrated Vandy team this weekend.
8) Tennessee (7-1)
The Vols won a tough one in Columbia against the Gamecocks, although South Carolina really helped them out with some turnover, mistakes and close mismanagement. LSU comes to Knoxville on Saturday for the game of the week in the SEC.
9) Cal (7-1)
The Bears won in OT behind the big run of Marshawn Lynch. Cal takes on an improved UCLA team.
10) USC (6-1)
When you play with fire you eventually get burned. USC has been living on the edge with all the recent close games and you knew sooner or later someone was going to get them. Somehow though you also knew USC would make it interesting even when they were down 23 to the Beavers. They are amazing in the aspect that they can just turn it on. Why can’t USC do that for four quarters? The Trojans will take out their frustrations on Stanford this weekend.
Notre Dame was too much for Navy. The Midshipmen have not beaten the Irish since JFK was in the White House. Notre Dame takes on UNC on Saturday.
12) LSU (6-2)
LSU got the week off and needed the rest, as they travel to Tennessee this weekend to face Tennessee.
13) Rutgers (8-0)
Do you believe the Scarlet Knights? 8-0 entering November! They are perhaps the best story of the ’06 season. Rutgers is idle this Saturday and they get the Cardinals at home the following weekend.
14) Arkansas (7-1)
The Razorbacks dominated Louisiana-Monroe. Here’s where it starts getting tougher for Arkansas, as they go on the road to face South Carolina on Saturday. This is a huge game for them.
15) Wisconsin (8-1)
The Badgers showed some grit coming from behind to face an improving Illinois team. They face Penn State this weekend.
16) Clemson (7-2)
The Tigers couldn’t get anything going offensively after their first score and they lost in one of the toughest venues – Blacksburg, Va. That’s a difficult task on a short week especially after the big, emotional win last Saturday at home against Georgia Tech. Clemson faces Maryland in another crucial ACC game.
17) Boise State (8-0)
Boise State was idle week. They face Fresno State.
18) Boston College (7-1)
The Eagles flew by Buffalo in a big way. They have a much tougher test this Saturday facing the surprising Demon Deacons on the road.
19) Oklahoma (6-2)
That had to be one of the most impressive wins for Stoops and his Sooners over the last season or two. Oklahoma faces another big road game. This time they travel to College Station to take on the one loss Texas A&M Aggies.
20) Wake Forest (7-1)
How about those Demon Deacons? They are a botched field goal away from being unbeaten. The amazing thing is they are winning without their starting quarterback, running back and tackle and that’s been for most of the season. This is an exceptionally coached team. Could it be that Wake plays for the ACC title? This weekend against BC will tell us a lot.
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