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The BLITZ
Story URL: http://recruiting.scout.com/2/698926.html

Jamie Newberg
SuperPrep.com
Nov 6, 2007

Here we go, as it is that time of the year again. Let the coaching carosel begin, as many high profile jobs are about to open up in college football. How will this effect recruiting? Speaking of recruiting, where will the nation's top running back and cornerback end up? I answer these questions and more in this week's BLITZ.

The Blitz (click here to submit question)

There is a mini-theme to this week’s Blitz… the pending coaching changes at schools like Nebraska and Texas A&M. Will LSU and Michigan open up? How about Arkansas or Arizona? Is this the year Bobby Bowden and/or Joe Paterno step down, ending their legendary coaching careers? This is only the tip of the iceberg with potentially two dozen coaching changes coming down the pike.

I know there is still three big weeks left in college football’s regular season. The noise will become louder and louder with what will happen later this month and in December and January regarding coaching moves. There are going to be a ton and there are going to be some great job openings from coast to coast. I mean some great job openings in many high profiles programs.

When this happens it directly effects what we do in trying to track the recruits, especially considering how many prospects made early commitments too many of the schools that will go through coaching transition. It certainly will make for a wild final two months of the recruiting season in December and January. My guess is that this will be the wildest recruiting season in recent memory.

Who do you think is the frontrunner to replace Bill Callahan at Nebraska? Go big Red.
Norman
Texas
How bad are things at Nebraska? The Cornhuskers lost their fifth consecutive game this weekend to Kansas. In the process they gave up 76 points to the unbeaten Jayhawks. Nebraska would go an entire decade of playing Kansas and not give up that many points. Seriously, in ten games against the Jayhawks in the 70s and ten more in the 80s they gave up a total of 57 and 52 respectively in 20 games! A change at the top can't come soon enough for this proud program.

With former coaching legend Tom Osborne taking over as the interim Athletic Director in Lincoln I think it’s safe to say that two coaches come to mind and everyone that loves the Big Red Machine is talking about this duo – Bo Pelini and Turner Gill, assuming a move is made with Callahan. Pelini is the current Defensive Coordinator at LSU while Gill is the Head Coach at Buffalo. Both have ties to the Nebraska program, Pelini as a coach and Gill as a player, one of the best quarterbacks in Cornhusker history.

If the job is offered to one of the two who will it likely be? Both are opposites in terms of their expertise. If it’s Pellini what will become of his offense in terms of style and who will he hire to be his coordinator? If it’s Gill, what style will he ultimately bring back to Lincoln with the personal already on campus?

Pelini is likely the top candidate between the two and there could be something else to consider; what if he has an opportunity to take over LSU if Les Miles has the opportunity to be the next Head Coach in Ann Arbor if Lloyd Carr steps down? There has been some talk that he would prefer to stay in Baton Rouge if given the chance to be the head man with the Tigers, given the fact of being able to become the head coach of a great program that’s loaded with talent. It’s a great potential problem to have if you are Pelini. On the other hand, there is no guarantee at this time that Carr will step down (see below) or if Miles would get the Michigan job if by chance it did open. Maybe the Wolverines would go in another direction.

In terms of Gill, does he have enough experience? Gill, 44, who spent the 2005 season serving as Player Development Director and Offensive Assistant with the Green Bay Packers, was lauded as one of the nation's top recruiters while an assistant coach at Nebraska from 1992-2004. He has served as the Buffalo Head Coach the past two seasons (6-15) and has done a very nice job there. By contrast, Pelini has never been a head coach but has been an assistant coach in the NFL for nine seasons as well as the Defensive Coordinator at Nebraska, Oklahoma in addition to LSU.

Bo Pelini
Bo Pelini
Something else to ponder; what if Osborne convinced both Pelini and Gill to come back together, Pelini as the Head Coach and Gill as his Offensive Coordinator? It’s a little out there but why not? I think Nebraska could get the best of both worlds in this scenario. They would have a great, young coach in Pelini who would probably only leave if ever given the opportunity to be the Head Coach at his alma mater, Ohio State. All the while Gill would be there waiting in the wings.

You will hear other coaching names mentioned but one that makes sense is Paul Johnson of Navy. His (option) offensive style would be a welcomed site in Lincoln and this guy that flat out coach. You will hear his name a lot over the next eight weeks or so being mentioned for a few jobs that will open up.

I do want to throw an additional name out there that could be a very good fit in Lincoln, Jim Grobe. First, the Wake Forest Head Coach has to be one of the best coaches in the game with a super staff from top to bottom. His style would fit the Big Red criteria both on and off the program. This guy has won at Wake. What do you think he could do at a program like Nebraska?

In terms of recruiting, Nebraska is already feeling the pinch of playing poorly and the impending change. Most of their offensive commitments are on de-commitment alert as many have already started looking elsewhere. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert (Ballwin, Missouri) and running back Jonas Gray (Beverly Hills, Michigan) have both reneged on the Cornhuskers and Gray as already committed to the Fighting Irish. Unless you are an in-state commitment to Nebraska you are on hold with the Cornhuskers and looking around.

Lloyd Carr leads Michigan into the Big Ten chase. (AP Photo)
Lloyd Carr
Would a coaching change at Michigan be helpful? It seems that Lloyd Carr is unable to get this team to compete at the highest levels of college football.
Tom
Minneapolis, Minnesota
As a college football fan I am on the fence with this one and I would probably lean towards no, I don’t think a coaching change would be good in Ann Arbor. First, losing to a 1-AA team should never happen if you are Michigan. I don’t care how good and talented Appalachian State is. But does losing one game constitute the firing or forced resignation of Lloyd Carr? He is 121-38 at Michigan (13 seasons), with one national championship and five Big 10 titles. Since losing to App. State and Oregon they have reeled off eight straight wins. To be honest, Carr and his staff have pulled the Wolverines from the depths of despair (and playing some without quarterback Chad Henne and running back Mike Hart) to be in position to win the conference this season.

Remember this, the winner of last year’s Ohio State/Michigan game got a ticket to play for the national championship. The Buckeyes won 42-39. Four more points and Michigan would have been unbeaten and played Florida for the national title, not Ohio State. Four points.

Something that continues to haunt Carr is what his teams haven’t done against Tressel’s Buckeyes. His career record against Ohio State is 6-6 but against the Tressel led Buckeyes it’s 1-5. That’s not good enough against your biggest rival, especially considering the stakes like last season, not to mention that Ohio State won the national championship back in 2001.

There is another titanic game against Ohio State looming ahead. This time it’s in Ann Arbor and if the Buckeyes take care of Illinois this weekend they will be playing Michigan once again for a shot at the national title and Big 10 Championship. A win against the hated Buckeyes will make many forget about what happened in week one and Michigan will have won the Big 10 title and be on their way to the Rose Bowl yet again.

If this is Carr’s last season it will be by his choice. I don’t think he will get fired. If there is a change at Michigan it will be because Carr will likely step down and an announcement could be made as early as the week of the Ohio State game, if that’s the direction he decides to take.

There is something else I would like to point out, be careful what you wish for if you are one of the many that want Carr out at Michigan. Just remember that the Nebraska faithful thought the same of Frank Solich after only losing only three games his final year in Lincoln and look where that got the Cornhuskers.

Houston Nutt
Houston Nutt
There is a lot of buzz going around that Houston Nutt is gone after this season. If that happens who could potentially replace him?
Tom
Magnolia, Arkansas
IF there is a coaching change at Arkansas I wouldn’t be surprised if the Razorbacks made a big run at Tommy Tuberville. Sure he is the coach at Auburn and you also hear his name mentioned prominently with the job at Texas A&M. Just remember that he’s from Arkansas, is very tight with Jerry Jones (Dallas Cowboy owner and former Arkansas player) and his agent (Jimmy Sexton) also represents Houston Nutt.

But much has to happen for this to come to fruition. Will the job open and will the interest be there?

Obviously Tuberville to A&M is what has legs right now… today. He does have ties to that program. Tuberville coached at A&M in 1994, serving as the Aggies Defensive Coordinator. But I think he’s also very intrigued about going home to Arkansas. Now Tuberville has a six million dollar buyout with Auburn and the Auburn protocol is for Tuberville and University President, Jay Gogue, to review the football program and coaching contracts at the end of the season, which is a mere two plus weeks away.

Regardless of what happens out there you will hear Tuberville’s name surface for these two jobs and perhaps even LSU, if the Tiger job opens.


Darrell Scott
Darrell Scott is coming to town for the Colorado/Missouri game. With a great showing at home by CU and a potential win, what is your analogy on the Buffs rounding out there recruiting year with the higher prospects that they are looking at namely the afore mentioned Darrell Scott? And do you think that being related to Josh Smith could have any type of influence? Thanks
Denny
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
First, the nation’s top rated running back, Darrell Scott (Ventura, California), did indeed visit Colorado this past weekend. Despite the Buffalos losing big to Missouri, he walked away more than impressed. Scott loves everything about the program including the staff, players, facilities, atmosphere and direction of the program under second year Head Coach Dan Hawkins. At this time I think it’s safe to assume that Colorado is the team to beat for Scott, with Florida, Texas, LSU, USC and UCLA hoping they get a crack at one of the premiere prospects among the Class of 2008.

Something that’s a huge benefit to Colorado is his uncle, Josh Smith, a freshman wide receiver for the Buffaloes. They are more like brothers, rather than uncle-nephew, as the two are exceptionally close. In fact last January Smith told me in an interview that he wouldn’t be surprised at all if Scott followed him to Colorado. They are that close. At that time though Smith was a little unsure of what Scott would ultimately do when the time came because he knew that Darrell could theoretically play for anyone in the country.

Based on my conversation with Smith, I have been saying since February that Colorado was a real player for the services of Darrell Scott and now it appears that the Buffaloes are the team to beat. Stay tuned.


Matt Patchan

Where does Matt Patchan end up?
Tim
Orlando, Florida
This is an interesting one. Patchan (Seffner, Florida) is one of the top rated offensive tackle prospects in the nation. He is a legacy at Miami, as his dad played for the ‘Canes. I am not a big believer in “locks” in recruiting and it was thought early on that Miami would be the team to beat for Patchan. That’s what I thought until a few months ago. Now I am not so sure anymore and I honestly feel he could end up in Gainesville and sign with the Gators. As I said, this one is interesting because of his ties to Miami. But Miami is really struggling right now on the field and many of their committed prospects are looking around. Patchan also has strong ties to Ole Miss and one of their coaches, Art Kehoe, was a longtime Miami assistant. LSU is also involved and you can never, ever count out the Tigers. I still contend that things will come down between Florida and Miami for Patchan and I this time I would give Florida the edge. But that could change.

Patrick Johnson
Patrick Johnson
Miami is in the process of having a very good recruiting class. I am concerned about CB Patrick Johnson though. What is your take?
Chuck
Colorado Springs, Colorado
Chuck, Miami’s class could take a hit and lose the nation’s top cornerback in Patrick Johnson (Pompano Beach, Florida). Johnson made an early commitment to the Hurricanes but visited Florida and LSU so far this far. Now he has opened things back up. He could sneak in a trip to Southern Cal before it’s all said and done. Johnson had two great official visits to both Baton Rouge and Gainesville. After his visit to the bayou it was thought he could be headed to LSU. Now the word is that Florida could have moved back in the driver’s seat.

I have thought for some time that if Miami struggled on the field that certain kids may waver with the Hurricanes. Only when I originally thought that I figured it would be the Trojans or Gators for Johnson and now it appears to be Florida or LSU. Don’t be surprised if he makes a firm decision in the next month or so because Johnson would like to graduate early.

Contrasting SEC non-conference games versus Pac 10 non-conference games is like comparing apples to oranges. The real measure is the won loss record in the league. No one has parity like the SEC. And with the stupid BCS structure, teams like Ohio State get top billing. I'll take a team with several loses from a strong league over an undefeated from a weak league anytime. Would you agree?
Mark
Beaufort, South Carolina
Mark, I understand what you are saying but I disagree with this in mind. You say you need to measure their won-loss records but a team’s record is predicated on the overall schedule, meaning each team plays their conference and non-conference schedule.

I will admit that I think the SEC takes a little easier path in scheduling their non-conference opponents. A big reason why they do this is because the conference is so tough, week in and week out (which is what you are saying, I know).

League play is tough, especially this season in the SEC and Pac 10. The teams in those conferences are certainly beating each other up because of their overall depth from top to bottom. In the SEC there could be as many as 11 bowl teams. 11. Whereas the Pac 10 could have could have six, maybe seven.

By contrast, I would agree that Ohio State has the easier path because the Big 10 as a whole is down. But that’s not Ohio State’s fault. They play their schedule and all they have done is win. If you look at that league right now, one through six (Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois, Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue) all have at least seven wins.

But what conference has the best teams that fall in the middle of their league? It’s the SEC, followed by the Pac 10. Then you have the Big East, Big 10, ACC and Big 12 in some kind of order but its pretty close.

The bottom line is this, college football is set under its parameters and guidelines. This means the top two teams ranked in the BCS at the end of the year play for it all. Again, you can’t fault Ohio State because all they have done is win their games. You fault the NCAA and the key players that make the rules and decide the football fate of all 119 teams.

It is these people that say we don’t need a playoff because the season is ultimately a playoff from the start. But is there a level playing field between teams like Ohio State, Oregon and LSU? Certainly the Pac 10 and SEC are a lot tougher from top to bottom then the Big 10, therefore the championship path is easier for the Buckeyes then Ducks and Tigers. Would Ohio State see the same success if they were in the Pac 10 or SEC? Sure they would have great success but the chances of the Buckeyes running the conference table unscathed for one season would be very tough not to mention to do it two years in a row. When was the last time an SEC team went unbeaten in conference play in successive seasons? Sure USC did it this decade but at that time you have to consider two things. First, USC was playing on just a different level. Second, the Pac 10 then was not the Pac 10 now, as the conference as really improved, especially this season.

This is why I feel that the argument of “the season itself is a playoff” is lost because the strength of each conference is different. The bottom line is this, there needs to be a playoff format in college football like every other sport.

With the way things are currently set up we will never know. And as long as college football is run this way you can’t fault Ohio State for winning. If the Buckeyes run the table they certainly deserve a shot at the title. No question about it.

The Blitz (click here to submit question)




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